On Rift's future

So this weekend has been the last, but largest beta test for Star Wars: The Old Republic. For anyone left who hasn't already been in the beta and wishes to, this was the last and most open chance to do so before the game launches in December.

Has this weekend been a taste of things to come for Rift?

Massively has been running a regular themed column for each MMO accessing the possible impact of SW:TOR on its population and how many will be lured away. Will they return or be gone for good?

This week was Rift's turn and the article makes some fairly balanced points but i feel it misses the biggest factor on any MMO's retention of subs and that is the community and social experience in game. For many players this starts and is largely made up of your guild. Whether you're a social guild providing a supportive, friendly guild atmosphere with players willing to help others, or a guild at the bleeding edge of content needing 20 players available to raid several nights a week, guilds can live and then die very quickly if you lose a even a small percentage of the players.

And its really the power of crowds. For many there wasn't even a choice for your first MMO. It was obviously going to be WoW because that's what everyone played, right? No matter the quality of any other MMO on the market. If Rift does suffer such a hemorrhaging of players to such a noticable effect that it impedes gameplay such as failing to complete zone events or decimating the number of guilds on each shard able to field 20 players for a raid to such an extent, will i be tempted to jump ship to SW:TOR, despite my almost complete lack of interest in that game?

If that's where everyone else is, then maybe, yes. For one thing, the key to maintaining online only friendships with people you meet through things like MMOs is the shared experience. Once you lose that, its easy to drift apart, and is it wrong to value your friendships over game enjoyment. In fact, maybe its better to play a rather flawed MMO that perhaps constantly disappoints you, but able to share your frustrations with your friends, than play one that is supposedly a better game experience, but no one to share it with?

I certainly can't ditch Rift entirely for Skyrim for instance, but as an MMO i would prefer to stick with Rift rather than jump to SW:TOR. The 1.6 update has actually been quite good fun. Ember Isle has many great features. New Invasion events, almost endless dailies, long quest chains and the increased xp rewards, coupled with a new World event giving players plenty of new content to consume.

But i fear no matter what Trion do that there are a certain number of players that will jump no matter what, and like with my 'social' guild once a few leave there is a snowball effect, leaving both the guild and Rift itself a shell of what it was once was.